Opinion

Transforming the post-Yusuf TFG and the end of warlords

(Somalia January 11, 2008 Ceegaag Online)

Nur Adde, the new Prime Minister, is a beginning and hope to transform the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Some may consider him as an appeaser or yes-man. It could be said that he is an unpromising late-comer with no set agendas but dictates from foreign benefactors. It could be said his selection for the PM post was based on his docile nature of acquiescence and lack of threat to the warlords. Nevertheless, Nur Adde, despite his many weaknesses and shortcomings, appears to be at least a man who is trying to experiment and explore options as well as learn from mistakes, case in point: his newly formed limited cabinet. So far the only tangible progress any of the bozos in Baidao ever accomplished since their formation in 2004.

It took three years for the TFG and its benefactors to understand that nothing could be accomplished with warlord-infested government that lacks a popular legitimacy.  Understanding is a flattering remark for the clowns and criminals in Baidao but the lean cabinet was definitely the result of continuous outside pressure and demand. For the new PM , Nur Adde, to follow orders,  to succumb to outside pressure and to take the revolutionary leap, he may have been emboldened by the worsening health problems of the warlord president Yusuf.  It was Yusuf who called the shots in Baidao but now due to Yusuf's terminal illness, the new PM found some breathing space to maneuver and form his government. He now needs to have the courage to ignore the trivial complaints of those parliamentarians left out of the formation of the new cabinet. He needs to outline a decisive and courageous program to lead the country to multi-system party, elections and democracy. He needs to reach to the opposition and be the Somali Anwar Sadat and go to either Asmara or a neutral venue as Djibouti and Doha to meet the leaders of the opposition. PM Nur Adde needs to be bold now and prove to the Somali people that he is a visionary and not just another token puppet of our enemies.

Yusuf, the ailing Somali warlord president, is to some extent out of the picture and his deteriorating health had given hope that warlord-ism may die once the last controlling warlord is gone.  His final expiration would likely herald a new political epoch devoid of the evil warlords.

This downfall of the warlords might have started with the miscalculated CIA covert gamble in mid 2006 to contract the hated Mogadishu warlords to capture few Islamists and its unintended consequence of empowering the same Islamists. Some of the worst Somali warlords, the likes of Osman Ato, Qanyare, Muse Sudi and Xaaraan-Ku-Naax, are now toothless and incapacitated. They had been forced to reluctantly join the bozos in Baidao as "parliamentarians" or as some call them, political prostitutes for the highest bidders in the Baidao farce, case in point: their vain advocacy and siding with the ex-Prime Minister Ghedi. This credit of the overthrow of the warlords goes to the Islamic Courts and it was a major accomplishment. But the courts were politically immature and lacked the coordination and wisdom to maintain their sudden success. Amongst them, were undisciplined warmongers and that was their failure.

Unfortunately, there are still few of the hated Somali warlords, the likes of Mohamed Dheere, Qaybdiid, Darwiish, Aden Madoobe etc, still in power. These are the warlords who are now brutally wreaking havoc in Somalia and especially in Mogadishu with the help of the Ethiopian occupiers. These war criminals should be brought to justice and the new cabinet led by Nur Adde must find a way to get rid of these warlords and make them toothless.

When and how the downfall of these warlords will come depends on two things: the unrelenting insurgent attacks on TFG militias and warlords bases and the demise of the top warlord Yusuf. How can we have two criminal warlords as the Mayor of Mogadishu and the Somali police chief is beyond belief and mind boggling.It is Yusuf who nominated Both Mohamed Dheere and Abdi Qaybdiid to lead the Banadir region and the police force? Even though, Yusuf’s departure may not immediately bring down these remaining warlords; it will definitely abridge their terror tenure.

Since the start of Somalia civil war catastrophe, the fate of Somalia has been held hostage by sadistic and ruthless group of warlords.  But the greatest disappointment to peace-loving Somalis came when the international community legitimized and accommodated the warlord tormenters with the hope that they will disarm and cease their deadly terror. The warlords and their minion associates, and some opportunistic politicians were always against peace and justice in Somalia. They were always backed by our main enemy to destroy Somalia and keep it under their control.

Even though Somalia is under a brutal and cruel Ethiopian occupation, even though 2007 was the worst year Somali people ever witnessed, nevertheless it's 2008 and Somalia is at a very critical crossroad. Time has come for many to realize that the transitional federal government dominated by the warlords  and backed by Ethiopian tanks is the problem. Should it be totally scraped or reformed is the question. If reform is the choice then there is a prospect of contemplating an end to warlord-ism at least within the TFG. Talking about the fall of the warlords in this painful period of Ethiopian occupation, civilian bombardment and mass displacement is indeed euphemistic and irrelevant. Yes, it's painful to see the daily suffering of innocent Somalis and the continuous harassments, hostage-taking, and assassination of aid workers and journalists by the warlord militia however with a cabinet led by a man who headed the Somali Red Crescent and others who founded the free media, a hope exists the new cabinet could bring an end to the warlord terror. The first task for the new cabinet is to facilitate aid and food relief to reach the displaced millions in lower Shebelle and to curtail the warlord’s assaults on the free media.

It doesn't require a rocket scientist to see that the Ethiopian occupation in Somalia will only perpetuate the worst humanitarian catastrophe in Africa. So their immediate departure and withdrawal from Somali soil would be necessary to bring all stakeholders into the table of negotiations. Once the international community takes a serious and bold decision to force the Ethiopians to withdraw and in their replacement bring some neutral peace keeping forces, then the Somali stakeholders without the warlords must show a political maturity and come to initiate a genuine political dialogue. With warlords and Ethiopia out of the picture, it will be all the stakeholders, including civil society, religious and Diaspora groups, and some of the emerging civilian politicians and technocrats on both sides to be bold enough to call for a broad based reconciliation owned by the Somali people. And who are the emerging political elite? It is the likes of Nur Adde, Ahmed Abdisalam, Jangeli, Dhuhuloow, and some of his cabinet members. It is the moderate member of opposition groups such Sheikh Sharif, Zakariye, Ibbi, Jama Qalib; Jama Ali Jama; Ulusow, Ali Khalif Galeyr and Ibrahim Adow.  The political living  Somali elders as honorable Abdirizak Haji Hussein, the Somali intellectuals as the Samatar brothers, Professor Ali Jimale, Djiboutian President Ismail Guled and the Ex-TNG president AbdiQasim Salad Hassan should oversee this process and plead with these political heavy weights to come to the table of negotiations without any conditions.

The oppostion has also to curb their irresponsible and self appointed spokespersons, such as the notorious warlords as Indhacadee, who some suspect to be working with the Mogadishu warlords. The opposition needs to distance themselves from the radicalized youth insurgents, the Al-Shabaab.

Somalis have two choices now: either to continue the downward spiral of self destruction or to come to their senses and see the need to forge a new beginning to end warlord-ism and Ethiopian subjugation.

by Khalid Ali Abdoow, kuuloow@hotmail.com

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