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Top 10 Reasons
Obama Defeated Clinton for the Democratic Nomination. By:
Robert Creamer
(Illinois, May 12,
2008 Ceegaag Online)
Now that the
outcome of the battle for the Democratic nomination has been
settled beyond a reasonable doubt, it's worth looking
systematically at the major factors that gave victory to
Obama. After all, fifteen months ago, conventional wisdom
viewed Obama as an audacious long shot. The very idea of a
first-term African American senator with a name like Barack
Obama defeating the vaunted Clinton machine seemed
preposterous.
Here are my
Top Ten reasons why lightning struck in the contest for the
2008 Democratic nomination
#1.
Obama is an Extraordinary Candidate.
Inspirational, articulate, brilliant, funny, attractive and
naturally empathetic - his history as a community organizer,
his experience abroad, his beautiful family, accomplished
wife, and adorable kids: Obama is the kind of candidate any
campaign manager would want in any year. But he is perfect
for this year. While the Clintons represented the Bridge to
the 21st Century, Obama is the 21st century. His own,
multi-cultural story is the future of America. As the
campaign tested him, he showed he was cool, deliberate and
effective under fire.
In the end,
people vote for people. Campaigns are ultimately about the
qualities of candidates --about whether or not people want
them to be their leaders. Potentially, Barack Obama could
become an historic, transformational leader. But John McCain
has many qualities that are attractive to swing voters as
well. Nothing is preordained. Now it will be up to every
Democrat, every Progressive, to take advantage of this
historic opportunity to make Barack Obama the American
President who leads the world into a new progressive era of
unprecedented possibility.
#2.
Change Trumped Experience.
Clinton Chief
Strategist Mark Penn's fundamental strategic error was to
position Clinton as the "Experience" candidate, when America
desperately wanted change. Eighty percent of the voters
think America is on the wrong track. They want change in
general - and most importantly, they want change in the way
special interests dominate Washington. Mark Penn, the
consummate lobbyist-insider himself embodied the very thing
people believe is wrong in Washington. It's no wonder he
made this catastrophic strategic blunder.
#3.
Unity Trumped Division.
Obama showed that appeals to division - whether from
elements that stirred up fear that a "black candidate
couldn't win" - or from his former pastor - could be
overcome by America's overwhelming hunger for unity.
Americans - and particularly young Americans - are sick of
Republican appeals based on the things that divide us,
particularly race. It isn't 1988 anymore. A whole generation
has passed from the scene and been replaced by young people
who simply don't get the passions that allowed the fear of
"Willie Horton" to decide the 1988 presidential race.
#4.
Hope and Inspiration trumped Fear and Anger.
A core element of that Obama message has always been hope
and inspiration. Early on, John Edwards hit an important
cord of populist anger that is critical to any successful
Democratic campaign. Right now especially, people want their
leaders to be populist outsiders not "competent" insiders.
But Edwards was unable to resolve that anger into hope.
Obama touched the anger but also held out possibility. When
Hillary "found her voice" as the fighting populist at the
end of the campaign, she tapped into anger as well. She
didn't hesitate to play the fear card -- both when it came
to foreign policy, and by channeling the Republican frame
that "elitist professional types" are trying to destroy your
way of life. But she never managed to inspire and resolve
that fear into hope.
Inspiration is
the one political message that simultaneously persuades
swing voters and motivates mobilizable voters who rarely
come to the polls. The North Carolina landslide provided a
striking example of how inspiration can generate massive
mobilization at the same time it appeals to independent
swing voters.
#5.
Obama Out-Communicated Clinton Using One Consistent Message.
Obama's message has been consistent from Day One. Clinton
lurched from "experienced insider" to "populist outsider"
from Margaret Thatcher-like "Iron Lady" to a "victim being
bullied." And of course, Obama's huge small-donor-driven
fundraising advantage gave him the ability to
out-communicate her in the paid media - often by a factor of
two-to-one.
#6.
Explosive Obama Fundraising.
Obama's ability to compete everywhere, to build great field
structures and to out-communicate Clinton in the paid media
rested squarely on the massive fundraising operation.
Obama's traditional fundraising program ended up matching
the vaunted Clinton fundraising machine. But the newly
developed Internet operation provided a massive advantage.
So far Obama has recruited over one-and-a-half-million
donors. In other words, by the time the primary season ends,
almost one of every ten Obama primary voters (so far there
have been 16.3 million) will have made a financial
contribution to his campaign. That is beyond unprecedented.
#7.
Excellence in Execution: Great Field.
Obama ran the best field operation in American political
history -- particularly in the all important Iowa Caucuses.
His campaign left no stone unturned, or a vote on the table,
in any state. It opened offices everywhere, hired and
trained great staff, and managed through simple, streamlined
structures. It would have been easy for Obama to squander
the massive influx of volunteers who were mobilized through
his inspirational message. But the campaign developed
structures to integrate and effectively use volunteers, both
on the ground and through the Internet. In particular, it
developed highly sophisticated new Internet tools to allow
volunteers around the country to participate meaningfully in
voter ID and get out the vote operations.
#8. No
Plan B.
The Clinton campaign had no fall-back plan when it failed to
capture the nomination on February 5. There was no money, no
organization and no plan to contest the states that lie in
the land beyond Super Tuesday.
#9.
All-State Strategy.
Mark Penn was convinced that Clinton could sew up the
nomination by Super Tuesday focusing only on the big states.
In fact, some have reported that he mistakenly believed that
California had a "winner take all" primary. Obama's team
hunted for delegates in every nook and cranny of America -
especially in the caucus states that Clinton really didn't
contest. Obama ran an active, on-the-ground campaign in
every contest, from California to Guam. As a consequence, as
one anonymous Clinton insider reports, Clinton lost the
nomination in February after Obama ran the table in 11
straight states.
#10.
Great Team.
Obama assembled a great team that could work together. He
stayed away from lobbyist insiders like Clinton's Mark Penn
or McCain's Charlie Black, and choose political
professionals who are committed to progressive values like
David Plouffe, David Axelrod, Steve Hildebrand and Paul
Tewes. From the first he insisted on one key rule: no drama.
There was little of the infighting and division in the Obama
operation that ate away at the Clinton campaign. Clinton had
many capable staffers and consultants, but Penn's divisive
leadership style and failures as a strategist doomed the
campaign organization to dysfunction. When the brilliant
Geoff Garin was tapped to succeed Penn as Chief Strategist
in April, it was simply too late.
Robert
Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist,
and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How
Progressives Can Win, available on amazon.com
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